Jack Reacher Criticizes Harbaugh for Michigan Loss October 18, 2015
In
a Daily Squash Report exclusive, here is Jack Reacher's analysis of
Michigan's shocking loss to Michigan State Saturday on a
returned-for-a-touchdown blocked punt in the last ten seconds of the
game. Jack Reacher is the fictional hero of Lee Child's novels and
known for his analytical mind and ability to use logic and probability
to predict improbable, inscrutable, or seemingly impossible events. For
example, if Reacher is fighting six guys in a street fight he figures
he is really fighting three guys because three will lay back, and of
the three fighters, he will take out one instantly, leaving two, which
makes it an easy win.
The odds of a punt being blocked are 1 in 100 but the odds of a punt
being blocked if you rush 11 men are 1 in 20 and if the rugby-style
kicker takes a sideways running start then the odds are 1 in 10. At the
end of the game when a penalty for roughing the kicker does not matter
the defenders can put on an all-out rush so the odds are 2 in 10.
If the punting team flanks a "gunner" out wide to cover the punt even
though nobody is back for the receiving team then it is playing 10
against 11, or nine men trying to block 11, and the odds are 3 in 10.
The odds of the snapper making a bad snap are 1 in 100 but in the last
ten seconds of the big game with the score in the balance the odds are
1 in 10. the odds of the snap being ok but a little low or off line are
2 in 10.
The odds of the kicker mishandling the snap are 1 in 100 but in the
last ten seconds of the big game with the score in the balance the odds
are 1 in 10. And if the kicker has been told to alter his style to a
single forward step instead of running three or four steps to his right
(as he does in practice every day of his football life) the odds are 2
in 10. It is a minor physical adjustment but a major mental one, like
throwing sidearm instead of over-the-top. If the snap is a little low
or off line the odds are 3 in 10 he will drop it. If the kicker is in
only his second year of American football the odds are 4 in 10. (Note
that receivers for both teams dropped several short to medium passes in
the fourth quarter. On the final play, Michigan, which had run the ball
on the previous three plays, essentially threw a 13-yard pass to the
punter.)
If the kicker drops the snap the odds are 5 in 10 that he will panic
and not get the kick off or fall on the ball no matter how many times
he has been told to do that. Emotions take over. In the last ten
seconds of the big game the odds are 9 in 10 he will panic and not get
the kick off or fall on the ball.
If the kicker panics there is a 50-50 chance the defense will score
because blocked punts in the kicking team's half of the field at the
end of the game are often returned for touchdowns because all 11
defenders have one goal in mind -- to block the kick, pick up the ball,
and advance it to the endzone while the 11 players on the kicking team
are in confusion. Or, in the case of the gunner, totally useless
instead of blocking or being positioned behind or along side the punter
to prevent disaster if there is a fumble, as in the victory formation.
So there was a 9 in 10 chance something would go wrong and a 9 in 10 chance of disaster if it did.
Plan for the best. Expect the worst.
So Reacher took Michigan State even in the final ten seconds. He played
the odds. Harbaugh and his staff did not, even though they are
professionals and make a lot of money (more than the kicker, whom they
blamed) and had two time outs to think about it. They called a play
with a high probability of failure in this situation
when there were safer options that would have either resulted in a
first down or given MSU the ball on approximately the 50 yard line with
time for a Hail Mary pass, which has a 1 in 10 chance.
"Bullshit," said Harbaugh.
Reacher said nothing.
(John Branston is a Michigan graduate and wrote this from the mental institution where he is being treated for shock.) jbranston@bellsouth.net
