Squash Analytics: Top Junior Gainers at Nationals

by David Keating


April 2, 2018


Squash analytics could be a lot more interesting if we could get our hands on data downloads, but that’s not yet possible. If you want to find interesting stuff, you have to look on your own. It’s a bit tedious.


As part of a broader research project (at least one more article to follow), I dug into 176 data points for the 44 of the BU17 and BU19 boys who played at the junior nationals last month.


In this installment, we’ll look at who came out of the tournament with the biggest boost, not for their points, but their skill rating. Points are important, obviously, for seeding going into the following season and for bragging rights. But everyone can see those. Skill ratings are a lot tougher to track, but are more predictive.


Below are those who gained at least 0.05 skill rating points from the tournament. While that doesn’t sound like much, it is. A typical player at this elite level might gain 0.25 skill rating points over the course of an entire year.


In that light, BU19 Keith Lamp’s gain is nothing short of stunning, but it could be a statistical fluke. Or he was due. Before the tournament he had gained just 0.04 rating points over the previous year.


BU17


Udai Pal

BU17 - 6

0.06

Ahmed "Chotoo" Amin

BU17-9th

0.06

Maxwell Velazquez

BU17 - 1

0.05

Gordon Lam

BU17-10th

0.05



BU19


Player

Finish

Gain

Keith Lamp

BU19-10th

0.12

Thomas P Rosini

BU19 - 3

0.07

Teddy Eill

BU19 - 25

0.07

Daelum A Mawji

BU19 - 1

0.06


Not surprisingly, among those who gained the most were those who either won or went deep into the draw or one of the consolations.


The biggest winner in skill point gains was BU19 Keith Lamp. He started out at the #21 seed, losing in three games in the first round to the eventual consolation winner, Dillon Huang. In between, he won four straight (including a default), then played Huang again, this time to five games to lose the final. His three wins came over much higher rated players.


Top gainers in BU17 both surpassed their seeding. Ahmed “Chotoo” Amin finished 9th, topping his seeding at 13th. He had to play 6 matches to get there, and simply playing more matches gives you more chances to improve your skill rating. Udai Pal finished 6th, one spot better than his seeding. He won the matches he should have won, but played very competitive matches against significantly higher-skill-rated players.


BU19 Teddy Eill, who was one of the fastest improving players over the last year, notched a gain of 0.07 points. He suffered a close first round consolation loss to a much higher rated player, and then swept through the plate, dropping just one game.


Last, but not least, Thomas Rosini also gained 0.07 points. Rosini played up into BU19 and was the top finishing BU17 in the division. Despite being seeded 11th, he finished third, a fitting and very impressive conclusion to his stunning rise this season.